Brazil's Unwritten G20 Agenda: Navigating Geopolitical Tensions Amidst Divided World
By Lomus Pudasaini, Beyond Bretton Woods Summer Fellow
Aug 14, 2024
In May 2024, Brazil's southern state endured five months of rain in just two weeks, displacing over half a million people and impacting the lives of millions more. This marked Brazil's fourth severe weather-related crisis of the year. As the state of Rio Grande do Sul does its best to deal with some irreversible damage, these environmental calamities are lending lasting resonance to Brazil's motto for its upcoming Group of Twenty (G20) presidency: "Building a Just World and a Sustainable Planet, even in the face of geopolitical headwinds."
Sharply differing views on the Russo-Ukranian war threatened to derail the G20 meetings last year: the New Delhi summit concluded without the customary "G20 Family" photo, highlighting the growing rifts; in Sāo Paulo this February, finance leaders from the world's largest economies failed to agree on a joint statement due to divisions over the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. Critics argue that these developments have diminished the G20's effectiveness.
Lula remains unbowed. Looking toward the November 2024 gathering that he is hosting, he has enumerated three key priorities:
Social inclusion and the fight against hunger
Energy transition and sustainable development, encompassing social, economic, and environmental aspects
Reform of global governance institutions
Recent developments have not subverted President Lula's appeals for greater representation of the Global South through the reform of postwar multilateral institutions such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, and Multilateral Development Banks (MDB). “Multilateral institutions are not adequately equipped to deal with current challenges, as demonstrated by the unacceptable paralysis of the Security Council in relation to ongoing conflicts,” said Lula’s foreign minister Vieira.
One such proposal is for the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (P5)–China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, and the United States–to forgo their veto power in cases directly related to themselves, thereby curbing conflicts of interest. In theory, this would prevent Russia from vetoing proposals regarding the war in Ukraine. These and other quota reforms in the Bretton Woods institutions are scheduled to be discussed in the meeting this year. While this idea is unlikely to gain traction given current geopolitical divisions and the long-run interests of the P5, it has the potential to garner support from many countries, not just within the Global South, thereby putting pressure on P5 members to respond with counter-proposals (Tran 2024).
Brazil's leadership in renewable energy, with 89% of its domestic energy matrix coming from wind, solar, hydro and bioenergy gives it credibility to advocate for climate action on the global stage. Accordingly, Brazil plans to use its G20 presidency to push for a "better, bigger, bolder" MDBs to address the sustainable development agenda. However, with development budgets under pressure everywhere, the situation is further complicated by the International Development Association (IDA) actively replenishing its balance sheet. At the same time, Western countries fear diluting their votes in Multilateral institutions to China (Devex 2024).
Brazil also aims to lead by launching a Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty, leveraging its position as the world's second largest food-exporting country. At this year's meeting, Brazil aims to compile top anti-hunger and anti-poverty strategies, helping all countries develop applicable programs. This initiative is particularly crucial given the significant price hikes following ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, which former UN World Food Programme director David Beasley warned is fueling a global hunger catastrophe. Brazil is likely to showcase the World Bank-backed Bolsa Familia program, which significantly alleviated poverty and has been adopted by nearly twenty other countries. The key to its success has been its comprehensive approach of combining conditional cash transfers with investments in human capital through education and health requirements, effectively addressing both immediate poverty relief and long-term poverty reduction.
To amplify diverse voices, Brazil has launched the G20 Social, which includes representatives from 13 different engagement groups spanning various facets of society, including different genders, occupations, generations, lawmakers, business leaders, and civil society organizations. Brazil is also attempting to spotlight the issue of wealth inequality, proposing to put the 2% billionaire tax agenda in the November meeting. With around 3,000 billionaires worldwide, this tax could raise approximately £250 billion a year for the global fight against poverty, inequality, and global heating. This proposal, supported by Brazil, Germany, South Africa, and Spain, signifies a growing international consensus on imposing a levy on the super-rich.
All told, Brazil's G20 presidency aims to set a precedent for a just world and sustainable planet, highlighting its role in shaping a more equitable and resilient global future. President Lula, having risen from poverty himself, intimately understands the urgency of addressing the agendas he has put forth. Leading by example from the Global South, Lula is relentlessly pushing for reforms essential for creating a more inclusive international system. A successful G20 could mark a decisive step for Brazil’s return to the international stage after the tumultuous Bolsonaro era. Following the G20, Brazil will host COP30 and the BRICS summit in 2025, further solidifying its commitment to sustainable development and global leadership.
Citations:
Vince Chadwick 09. 2024. “Devex Invested: Inside Brazil’s G20 Vision for Multilateral Development Banks.” Devex. July 9, 2024. https://www.devex.com/news/sponsored/devex-invested-inside-brazil-s-g20-vision-for-multilateral-development-banks-107916.
Tran Huang. 2024. “Brazil’s Approach to the G20: Leading by Example.” Atlantic Council (blog). April 12, 2024. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/brazils-approach-to-the-g20-leading-by-example/.